Posts tagged GDP
Here’s some food for thought for anyone who says Singapore’s impressive GDP growth is entirely due to its China connections: Singapore’s GDP overtook Hong Kong’s in the first quarter this year and is projected to be larger at the end of the year.
Singapore’s quarterly nominal GDP was US63.9 billion, 10% higher than Hong Kong’s at $57.9 billion, according to a report by Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Chua Hak Bin. It’s worth noting that Singapore’s dollar is free-floating while Hong Kong’s is pegged to the USD. The S$ has gained 8.2% against the Hong Kong dollar in the past year and 23.3% in the past decade. Still, Chua says it would have been “far fetched” to predict such a development just a decade ago, given Hong Kong’s greater proximity to China and Singapore’s more volatile neighborhood at the time of the Asian financial crisis.
Singapore’s population is also just 5.1 million, while Hong Kong’s is 7.1 million. The two find themselves frequently compared due to their status as independent (or autonomous) city-states, majority ethnic Chinese populations and the significant role played by the financial services sector in both places. Singapore recently revised its GDP growth forecast for 2011 up from 4-6% to 5-7%. Hong Kong is still no slouch, with 7.2% growth in Q1 2011 and its own upward-revised annual projection of 5-6% (from 4-5%).
source & article: Economic Times (India)
Good news from a country long deserving of it: the Philippines economy more than doubled market forecasts and grew by 7.6% in the final quarter of 2010, its highest rate since the glory days of the mid 1970s. Industry and agriculture strengthened to make up for government spending cuts and the Philippines’ famous population of overseas workers is expected to send over US$20 billion back home this year.
The central bank might even need to increase interest rates to stave off inflation, as food and fuel prices also rise.
Like Indonesia, the Philippines is looking for investment for public-private partnerships in 10 key infrastructure projects likely to be auctioned off in the first half of 2011. Also like other countries in the region, forecasters predict growth will be more subtle in the coming year, leveling off to around 5% but with hopes for growth long promised but not seen until now.
source & article: Reuters via Yahoo! Singapore
Over at the CNBC’s Squawk Box segment they speak to Karim Raslan, columnist with The Edge Malaysia and CEO of consultancy the KRA Group, about Indonesia taking its rightful place next to the ‘BRICs’ emerging economies of note.
“Unlike Russia, the population is younger and growing,” he says. The economy is currently around US$750 billion and will probably hit $1 trillion by 2015, more if Indonesia can sort out its various physical infrastructure issues. “Imagine when the highways, the ports, are all up and running properly.”
He acknowledges there’s a great geographic disparity along with the economic one, but that recent decentralization of the economy has unleashed the ambitions of millions across Indonesia. The government has been “assiduous” in courting teachers and civil servants, bringing them into the mainstream economy with wage increases. There is also the question of the “push and pull” effect on Indonesia’s sensitive environment, as Indonesia balances its need to protect its natural resources with the voracious appetite of a fast growing economy.
New Special Economic Zones (SEZs) and industrial clusters based around regional commodity centers will take Indonesia’s GDP up to US$1 trillion and over by 2014, says the government. They also want to boost Indonesians’ per capita share of Gross National Product (GNP) from the current $3,000 to $5,000 or $5,500.
New economic policies aim to attract yet more overseas investment through the creation of Special Economic Zones. The department of Coordinating Economic Minister Hatta Rajasa is scouting the country’s regions to identify potential ‘growth centers’ and so far, they have marked five regions: Riau, North Sumatra, East Kalimantan, East Java and Merauke based on their respective strengths. The first three show potential for the crude palm oil industry, while the latter two show promise in oil, gas and agriculture development.
The government has calculated Indonesia’s current GDP at $700,000 and the economy is growing at a rate of 5.8% to 6.1%. Indonesia has set a target of up to 7.7% growth by 2014, and wants the country to take its place among the four so-called ‘BRIC’ economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China, often predicted to be the world’s largest by 2050.
source & article: The Jakarta Post
Malaysia’s economy should continue to show growth for the second half of 2010 but at a reduced and more sustainable rate, say economists. Overall, growth in 2010 should be at 7.24%, but due to this initial surge and continued uncertainty in other parts of the world it should slow to 5.71% in Q3 2010. Estimates from a number of institutions for 2011 range from 4.5% to 5.8% (average 5.27%).
Most major sectors of the economy are expected to show reduced growth, possibly due to the stronger ringgit and other structural competitiveness issues. Services including energy, transport and retail, representing 57% of GDP, will probably slow to 5.5% growth and manufacturing items like electronics and transport equipment should slow to 7.5% due to reduced demand for Malaysia’s exports.
Construction and mining will also show lowered growth, however agriculture has actually increased to 9.1%, and the finance and tourism sectors have also seen increased activity.
source & article: Business Times
Singapore’s overall Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will surpass Malaysia’s to become the third largest in Southeast Asia, according to government forecasts in both countries. Thanks to Singapore’s record economic growth in recent times, GDP will grow by 15% to reach US$210 billion by the end of this year, just overtaking Malaysia which is set to reach $205 billion on the back of its own 7% growth.
Indonesia and Thailand still hold the #1 and #2 positions respectively.
Given that Malaysia is 478 times larger than its city-state neighbor, economists and businesspeople are looking for explanations. Some say Malaysia too inward-looking, concerned more with distribution of wealth within its borders than in gaining a competitive edge over other countries in the region. Others say it’s Singapore’s economic reinvention and willingness to engage international markets. Even former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamed has weighed in by saying Singapore is concerned only with economic growth and not enough with social policy.
Whatever the reasons, Singapore’s economy has grown 189-fold since independence in 1965, three times the rate of Malaysia itself. GDP per capita in Singapore went from US$512 to $36,537, and from $335 to $6975 in Malaysia.
It’s important to remember that economic growth is not a zero-sum game, and Singapore’s wealth creates plenty of opportunities for Malaysia to benefit by utilizing its physical proximity and Singapore’s access to global markets, as well as increased trade and foreign investment opportunities.
source & article: Today Online